Not to glorify anything in particular, but as a historian and long time practitioner and artist myself, I can't help but to marvel at Saturday's matchup between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Yes, you truly have 2 polar opposites stepping into the octagon. You have a former Olympic wrestler, and blue-collar fighter in Daniel Cormier or DC, and a very spiritual and constantly evolving, and expressive martial artist in Jon Jones. In conventional competition, I side with the latter, but this fight could have a few wrinkles.
The other day, while driving home, I ran the fight through in my mind, as to what would happen. I've been involved with combat arts from the age of 9. I usually keep that to myself, because it's wasted on conversations with coworker and idiots alike who are obsessed with disrespecting me. Anyway, over the years, being exposed to boxing, wrestling, kung fu, tae kwon do, muay thai, jiu jitsu, ninjustsu, etc, and countless fight film, I've had no choice but to develop intuition. And you don't have to be a former or current fighter or practitioner.Even f you've watched fight prep and film for years and years, you can look at the lead up to a fight and the weigh ins, and have a good idea of how the fight will play out. It's freaky sometimes.
I was pulling for DC a bit due to his lovable personality, but I have to explain why I favor the artist over the blue-collar fighter. To be clear, DC is a perfectionist just like Jon is, He lost just before a medal match in the 2004 olympics, and was sidelined by kidney failure in the 2008 olympics. He never won a NCAA Championship, which made me look deeper in itself. In college, he lost all 6 matches with Cael Sanderson. I know that Cael is the greatest wrestler of all time, but DC lost other matches as well. I watched him dominate in wrestling matches as well as fighters in MMA, and I kept thinking wondering what could be holding back such a dominant wrestler and fighter from victory in big matches. Now, I realize that it's his work ethic. I know that sounds crazy, because DC works so hard, but it's not about how hard he works. It's about how you work. He is the opposite of Jon Jones. He does what he needs to do to win, and works to a rigid gameplan, grinding. He doesn't believe in thinking outside of the box. He wins his matches on dominance and enforcing his will while avoiding adversity. He also has a team behind him- AKA- American Kickboxing Academy, that is very limited in their understanding of fighters like Jon. If I was in a fight camp, I knew it would be Jon Jones' camp - Greg Jackson's Gym, long before I even know Jon as a fighter. Greg Jackson has been known for years for developing artistic fighters with his philosophies. He made GSP, and he had Rashad Evans when Evan was his most dangerous. It's the perfect place for Jon.
Jon Jones is an artist. When he trains, he trains to be amazing in all areas, and surprise his opponent and himself. Watching his training, he leaves no stone unturned. He works on all areas, and doesn't run from his weaknesses, but strives to make them his strengths. That's what GSP and every other Greg Jackson fighter does. It's because of that, and his belief, not his reach and size, that he is likely to dominate and stop DC on Saturday. DC works hard, but has a few limitations. He also has a team behind him that thinks that Jon Jones is all elbows and knees at long range, and has no chin. They are way off in their analysis. I knew Jones had a chin since his fight with Rampage. DC is a worker bee as a fighter. He works hard, and tries to avoid trouble in a fight. Jon Jones works on trouble in fights, and how to dominate from a bad turn in a fight. Those philosophical differences are going to be a problem for DC. I watch their workouts and one of them stood out to me. I watched both of them working the heavy rope. Jon looked like he embraced it and DC looked like a fat kid just getting through the workout. What a martial artist understands is that there is a benefit in all exercises. Jon knows that as well as I do. He isn't a powerhouse guy by any means, but he knows that it serves him well to be able to become that when needed. Remember in Karate Kid when Mister Miyagi made Daniel clean the car? We all chuckle at that, but it is a base principle of all martial arts. technique lies in everything; even a handshake. The heavy rope helps you block and keep your hands up and in position, utilizing the key muscles in your deltoids. It isn't a useless workout. Yet, alot of people, including fighters, view it as such, even if subconsciously, and show it in their workouts. Even when working the mitts, I saw it carry over, as DC has hands that tend to drop. He struggles keeping his hands up.
I see the fight playing out like this: DC comes in confident and looks to establish some kind of respectable jab. At first, Jon keeps his distance, respecting DC's power a bit too much. Then Jon starts to pepper DC's guard with jabs and straights. All of the DC fans start to show shock as some punches get through. There, you start to see his weak deltoids showing up. Then, he tries to catch Jon over the top with looping shots, catching only arms. Jon continues to hammer at his guard with shots. DC's chin is solid, so he won't wilt under these initial punches. We saw his chin in the Big Country fight. Soon, when he sees that Jon is better conditioned on the feet, he'll try to double and triple up his combos- even going for leg kicks. When his success is minimal, he will know that it's time to shoot for a single. Jon will likely spin out of the first attempt. Staying upright will cause Jon to lessen his strikes just enough for DC to try to time one of them and shoot in for another takedown. He'll eventually get it, probably on the second attempt. Being dominant in holding top position, DC will try to lay on Jon. Unfortunately, Jon will be able to cut him up from the bottom position. He may even go for subs that DC is not ready for. When the danger becomes apparent, DC will lighten up just enough for Jones to stand again. Soon, DC will try to get into a clinch to wear Jon down. His strong positions will be attacking while Jon tries to block transitions or transition himself. Other than that, Jon is superior. And I think when he sees the body shots and uppercuts in Jon's clinch game, he's going to resent his camp's reconnaissance. If he isn't careful, Jon can sweep him from mount, and end the fight very nastily. However, I give DC a slight chance if he can keep Jon off balance from beginning to end. Honestly though, I see Jon Jones by vicious TKO, probably in the 3rd round. I know, it's a "Say it ain't so," outcome, but if you do honest observance you can see that too. I wish sometimes that I could train these guys when I see their camps leading them wrong. All AKA does is glorify the great wrestler that DC is and work on that. That is not how you develop a fighter.
As far as Vitor Belfort goes, I see more potential for him to upset than I do in DC. They are fighting equally difficult champions, but Vitor is preparing better. He is preparing like Jon Jones. I like all of what I'm seeing in his training camp. The only thing I question is the ability of these brazilian camps to handle wrestlers. Notoriously, they are weak against wrestlers. Also, his fight is in late January. I wonder why he is training as hard as Jon Jones now. That is not good. If he peaks too early or blows himself out, that would suck. He is coming off of TRT, and vulnerable to injury. He better be careful.
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