I would be remisced not to discuss the announcement of what is most likely the biggest fight in the history of sports. We have just heard the announcement of the Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight finally happening on May 2nd of this year. We have waited over 5 years- close to 6 years for this fight to finally happen. To be honest, if you've read my posts and my comments over the last few years, you know that initially, I didn't really have a lot of interest in this fight from a tactical perspective. I felt that Manny was too reckless for my taste, and undersized as well, for a matchup with Floyd. At the time, I didn't have a lot of respect for Manny. However, over the years, watching his mastery of his style, and his dominance of an array of different opponents, as well as his resurgence following a devastating loss to a juiced Marquez, I began to appreciate Manny as a very special boxer of this generation, who could have held his own in the previous era. I also formed a huge amount of respect for Freddie Roach- the student of Eddie Futch. He has shown himself, through his resume' to be one of, if not the greatest preparer of all time. He knows how to study his fighter's opponent, and get them ready to be competitive and effective against whoever they are facing- even in mismatches. That has impressed me immensely over the years. He is a master tactician.
When it comes to this fight, part of the reason I want to see it is because of Freddie Roach. I know, and Mayweather knows, that he is going to get Manny physically, and mentally prepared for this fight. That has been part of his reservations. Floyd Mayweather does not like to enter into a fight unless he is in control before entering the ring. Whatever he can't determine prior to picking the opponent, he likes to iron out during pre-fight antics. Manny Pacquiao is the first person that Floyd is facing, who will not be rattled whatsoever entering the ring on May 2nd. He will be fully prepared to do his best, and will not be out of the fight at any point, other than being stopped. He will be game, and thanks to Roach, he will adapt. These are things that Floyd doesn't like.
I still feel that this was a fight hyped more than necessary to build interest and money. It's a fight that Floyd can win relatively easy. But there is a level of intrigue there, that Manny can beat Floyd. I told my coworker that this is actually a fight that Floyd has to score a KO on. His usual strategy of having better speed, stamina, and footwork than his opponent, and lacing them with shots all night, outlanding them, is out of the question this time. Manny will definitely not allow himself to land less than Floyd, and Floyd cannot be busier than Manny. If he were to try, he would really open himself up to a bad upset. He has to keep Manny off balance, and on the outside, and hurt him in the process early. Then, he can pick off a wounded Manny with a heavy shot later on and stop him. That's somewhat how he took care of Hatton. However, it will be very difficult to do that, and to silence a busy Manny, who has deceptive defense and footwork that is as good as his, if not better. There is a big difference between teeing off on an opponent and standing on the outside until you go for the kill, and teeing off on an opponent in spurts while taking shots and damage along the way. Mayweather has never had to deal with the latter. In his fight with Manny, if he takes shots and is put on the retreat at any point, the needle will tilt towards Manny heavily. He has to come into the ring as the big man,stylistically, but he can't afford to be the lumbering lunk in this fight though, otherwise he risks Manny circling him and picking him off with clusters of shots. So look for a surprisingly strategic fight.
On that note, I must say that when I think about it, the pressure is really on Mayweather. This is not the last fight of his contract, but it's the biggest. If he should win big and dominantly, many will clamor to see a more competitive opponent, and feel they were duped with this matchup. He may end up in a position similar to Larry Holmes, who was 1 win away from tying Rocky Marciano, before he lost in a controversial and pressure filled match. Don't be surprised if Floyd loses his next fight after winning this one. He may have all kinds of insecurities and pressures surround him, that he picks the wrong opponent for his last fight, and gets knocked out. It may even end up being what people will call Karma. That isn't what it is, but in a way, it's set up. He's spent so much time trying to control every second of his legacy, that his last moment may be a tragedy. Where do you go from an overhyped Pacman fight- if that's what it turns out to be? The answer is that we don't know.
Floyd is turning 38 in a few days. One thing about him is that he has always had the physicality to turn up his training to meet a challenge, if he ever faced one in an opponent. However, I noticed a shift during his little war with Maidana. He was roughed up far more than he expected in the first fight, and then he trained like a madman just to be underwhelming in the rematch, and look pot-bellied, slow, and beatable. He has fooled fans for years, into thinking that he could stop his opponents if he wanted to. I personally knew he had no shot at stopping Guerrero or Canelo, regardless of how the fights looked to people. He cries about his hand constantly, as his excuse for his performances, going back to his LOSS to Castillo in their first fight. At this age, he is having difficulty "getting up" for fights. He knows that for this fight, he has to bring the best Mayweather that he can muster, but the odds are that in all of his efforts, he will produce an underwhelming shell of himself on fight night. Look for a power-hungry, KO seeking Floyd on May 2nd. He knows that is his best chance. His movement is still solid, but it won't be as impressive against Manny. I can't wait to see what happens. Stay tuned.
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